Calculating South Carolina football wins needed for College Football Playoff bid

South Carolina football is just 59 days away from kicking off its 2024 season in a game at Williams-Brice Stadium against the Old Dominion Monarchs.

In the long offseason from the winter to the current summer workouts, projections for the Gamecocks have been all over the place as USC faces a tough schedule and has a lot of new faces looking to plug holes from last year's roster.

Kelley Ford Ratings, a college football analytics outlet has released its projections for the 2024 South Carolina football team and what it would take for the Gamecocks to find their way to inclusion in the College Football Playoff.

KFord's ratings ultimately project the Gamecocks to go 6-6 this fall with virtual guaranteed wins against Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, and @ Vanderbilt; toss-ups against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, LSU, and @ Kentucky (all leaning in favor of the opponent); a likely loss @ Clemson; and virtual guaranteed losses @ Alabama and @ Oklahoma. This means, the projections believe Carolina will pull two mild upsets over Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, LSU, Kentucky, or Clemson.

5-7 is the second-most likely outcome for the 2024 Gamecocks according to KFordRatings, and 7-5 is the third-most likely end result by the projection system.

However, the projections (which have South Carolina football ranked as the 38th-best team in the country overall and 13th in the SEC) are negatively affected by the Gamecocks' large number of potential contributors who are in their first year with the program.

The defense is rated as the 37th-best in the country, which means the unit is 12th in the SEC, an outcome that seems unlikely. The offense is rated as the 63rd-best in the nation, which makes it 14th in the conference. If the offensive line play is better and LaNorris Sellers is as ready as he seems to be a quarterback, that poor of a showing also seems unlikely. Special teams is more well-thought-of, ranking 8th in the country and 3rd in the SEC.

If Carolina's newcomers, especially the transfer portal additions, can play up to their potential, the Gamecocks will outperform the KFord Ratings projections. Unfortunately, though, the way the schedule stacks up will make a better record on the field difficult nonetheless.

However, according to the same system, there is a path for the Gamecocks to break through and make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

Where will those wins for South Carolina football come from in 2024?

Based on their KFordRatings metrics, KFord believes a 9-3 regular season for the South Carolina Gamecocks would put the team in discussion for the College Football Playoff.

10 SEC teams are in the "9-3 tier" (with USC coming in as the 7th of the group). For the Gamecocks, that means a 9-3 record, plus some help around the country, could put them in the College Football Playoff.

KFord doesn't think it matters much which 9 games are wins and which 3 are losses, but to reach that threshold, Shane Beamer's team likely would have to win 9 of 10 against Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky, and Clemson (Alabama and Oklahoma are viewed as heavy longshots by the rating system).

That isn't likely, even according to Kelley Ford. Based on their math, the 12th-best power program (12 teams make the College Football Playoff) should be expected to win just 7.7 games against Carolina's schedule, a number that is short of their proposed 9 wins that are necessary for CFP chatter.

Thinking that year 4 of the Shane Beamer era will end with a College Football Playoff appearance likely will result in disappointment; however, the most optimistic of South Carolina football fans can cling to KFord's assertion that it isn't impossible.

The Gamecocks' 2024 season will kick off on August 31st when Old Dominion comes to Columbia for a 4:15 PM ET game that will be broadcast on the SEC Network and streamed on the ESPN app.