We are officially a week away from the start of fall camp for the South Carolina Gamecocks' football team. The vibes are at an all-time high in the Shane Beamer era, especially after all the recruitment news over the last few weeks. It also helps when players get some deserved recognition, Dylan Stewart for PFF College All-SEC Defense, LaNorris Sellers being on the early Heisman watch, etc.
On Friday, July 25, ESPN's college football writer Bill Connelly published his recent 2025 SEC season projection and preview. He discusses all of the SEC teams as a whole, breaking down returning starters, SP+ rankings (SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency according to ESPN), and where teams could finish during the 2025 college football season.
Regarding the Gamecocks, Connelly first reviewed the 2024 season where he saw Beamer's team finish with a SP+ Rank of 14, which was seventh in the SEC. The offense had a 35 SP+ compared to the defense which had a 13. Special teams did not fare well to the SP+ rankings coming in with a 49. Overall, not bad for the 2024 Gamecocks team who finished 9-3 (5-3) before their bowl game.
Heading into 2025, the Gamecocks will return 66% of the offense, compared to the 49% for the defense. According to Connelly, that gives them a 58% retained squad, ranking them 58th. The number one team was the Vanderbilt Commodores, who were ranked third after returning 77% of their team. When it comes to starts returned, the Gamecocks have 118, while having 77 incoming starts and 14 redshirt freshmen on the 2025 team.
When projecting the 2025 season, Connelly has the Gamecocks finishing 10th in the SEC, 17th overall, per the SP+ model. Their SP+ is 16.1, which, compared to the Alabama Crimson Tide's (27.9), suggests that the model believes the Gamecocks will be in the mid-pack within the SEC in 2025. Offensively, the Gamecocks come ranked 24th with a 33.3, 15th on defense (17.2), and 50th on special teams (0.1). The average win for the Gamecocks came out to 7.2, which is 2.6 wins behind the Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs.
The main things that stand out for the Gamecocks is their seventh overall Strength of Schedule going into the 2025 season. Within the SEC alone, only the Oklahoma Sooners (1), Florida Gators (2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3), Commodores (5), and Mississippi State Bulldogs (6), have tougher schedules per all of college football.
That last thing Connelly brought up was Conference Wins, Winning the Conference, 11+, and 6+ wins. The Gamecocks came in with 4.1 SEC wins, 5.4% to win the conference title, .7% to win 11+ games, and 87.7% to win 6+ games. It seems that the projections from Connelly suggest that the Gamecocks could be a seven or eight-win team with four, maybe five conference wins.
Despite all of that, the SP+ ranking, returning players, incoming players, projections, etc. The Gamecocks proved last season that once they get hot, there is no stopping them. The won three ranked games in the final six games of the season to finish 9-3 after starting 3-3. Thay've been to three bowl games in Beamer's first four season. Beamer has won more games in his first four seasons than any coach before him. If there was a team to prove the doubters wrong, it's the 2025 South Carolina Gamecocks.
Will it be a tough road? Yes, it will be. Can they overcome it and shock college football? Also, yes. They've done it before, and with a team that's bought in like Carolina, anything is possible. We aren't too far away from Game 1 of the season against Virginia Tech. Once it gets here, it'll be a fun season to watch for Beamer and the Gamecocks.