The South Carolina Gamecocks are 2-0 with wins over Kent State and Towson in the first couple weeks of play. As the Gamecocks get ready to start SEC play against Mississippi State in Week 3, the 2026-27 College Football Playoff feels like it is a ways away.
But ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor already has the latest CFP chances for several teams across the country. Let's take a look at where Shane Beamer's team stands, as well as some other teams across the SEC and other conferences.
According to ESPN's system, the Texas Longhorns have the best chance at 87%, coming off of their huge win over Ohio State. Right behind Texas is Notre Dame, sitting at 80%, followed by Miami at 79. Ohio State checks in at 74% even with its loss to the Longhorns, and Indiana is at 63.
That's far better than ESPN gives South Carolina, which is currently sitting with a 14% chance to make the CFP. The Gamecocks are right behind Auburn at 15%, Virginia at 17%, Nebraska at 18 and Boise State at 19. As things stand currently, the Gamecocks have the 24th-best chances to make the field of 12.
Of course, it is just two games into the season and this could change. But even deeper into the playoff predictor, the system also identifies the three toughest games for the Gamecocks this season. Per ESPN, those are the Sept. 25 game against Alabama on the road, the Nov. 6 game against Texas A&M and the Georgia game on Nov. 20.
The predictor also lets you pick and choose South Carolina's playoff chances based on the outcome of those three games. The model assumes South Carolina wins all other games on its schedule for the exercise, which is important to remember.
For example, per ESPN, if the Gamecocks were to lose to Alabama but beat both Texas A&M and Georgia, South Carolina would be a projected No. 3 seed in the playoff. South Carolina would play either No. 11 SMU or No. 6 Virginia Tech in the first round. That's even without the Gamecocks winning the SEC title game.
Now let's say South Carlina loses to Alabama but Texas A&M and beats Georgia. The Gamecocks would still have a 98% chance at the CFP, and would face No. 10 Notre Dame as a No. 7 seed. A win over Texas A&M and a loss to Alabama and Georgia would still give the Gamecocks a 98% chance, projected as a No. 8 seed, hosting No. 9 SMU.
If South Carolina loses to all three teams, their playoff chances drop to 44%.
As you can see, the Gamecocks are still in pretty decent shape, even if they lose two out of those three games. But outside of those three, the Gamecocks still have some tough games, including ones on the road against Florida, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Clemson. South Carolina also draws MSU this week, Kentucky and No. 15 Tennessee at home.
Obviously there's a long way to go before South Carolina can be considered a CFP contender. But if the Gamecocks do well against most of its other SEC opponents, a late-season case to make the field is very much in-play.
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