Saturday night's mess of a game against Missouri left the Gamecocks at 2-2 and 0-2 in SEC play, a performance that exposed more than just a few cracks. South Carolina lost 29-20, hit negative numbers in the run game, and were penalized 14 times. By all rights, they should have dropped hard. Instead, something else happened, the Gamecocks moved up in the ESPN FPI, landing at No. 33 nationally.
Why the bump?
The FPI (Football Power Index) model doesn't punish losses, it rewards strength of schedule, efficiency across offense, defense, and special teams, and how teams perform relative to expectations. Even in losses, there are positive data points.
- South Carolina did see improvements in defense efficiency, moving up from No.48 to No. 37 nationally. While the offense still looks shaky, the defense stiffened up enough to limit Missouri to field goals on three drives.
- Special teams again did their part with good kick coverage, consistent punting from Mason Love (averaging about 45 yards per kick), and William Joyce converting his field goal attempts. The only blemish coming from a kickoff by Max Kelley that went out of bounds.
- Strength of schedule for the Gamecocks also helped. The slate of SEC games is brutal and playing Missouri on the road added weight even in defeat. The remaining stretch of games, six straight SEC matchups, isn't going to let the benefit of the schedule lag fade any time soon.
Kentucky Coming Up Gives a Chance
On Saturday, September 27, the Wildcats travel to Williams-Brice Stadium. Kentucky is rated No. 43 in the FPI, a notch below South Carolina. Their breakdown:
- Offense: No. 81
- Defense: No. 29
- Special Teams: No. 37
What's Next
South Carolina still sits ahead in the FPI but clearly can't rest on stats alone. The Gamecocks must correct what isn't working first. The defense is what is keeping them in games, and the FPI shows it. Now South Carolina has to play like it shows across all four quarters. Turnovers, penalties, and the ground game remain the Gamecocks' Achilles' heel, but they are easy fixes that can change close games.
After going 0-2 in SEC play, getting a win against Kentucky on Saturday isn't just about the rankings, it's about momentum and belief. One more bad quarter, or one more collapse in play, and those efficiency rankings will drop. Saturday will be a test of whether the analytics are truly capturing something real or inflating an illusion.