Putting Shane Beamer atop the hot seat rankings is completely detached from reality

We've come to that wonderful time of year when every talking head in the country wants to tell us which head football coaches are most in danger of being fired this year. The "hot seat" list, as it's commonly known, is usually a pretty easy ranking to come up with.

However, this year, one analyst says that South Carolina's Shane Beamer is numero uno on that list for 2026. Truthfully, if you want to put Beamer on a hot seat list, that's somewhat understandable, but to say he's in more danger than any other head coach is a huge leap.

Brooks Austin, who compiled this list, is generally a pretty sane voice among analysts. He's a guy who studies film carefully and can break things down with the best of them. However, his assessment of coaching troubles isn't quite hitting the mark here.

Does Shane Beamer need to worry a little? Probably so. The program has been inconsistent at times under Beamer's leadership, and last season's 4-8 mark (1-7 in conference play) was a huge disappointment coming off what looked like a promising season in 2024.

The pressure is there, and certainly there's a portion of the fanbase who wants to see Beamer go. But is he in more trouble than Luke Fickell? or Bill O'Brien? Or even Mike Norvell (who Austin included on his list humorously as "already fired").

Probably not.

Why Shane Beamer may have a warm seat instead of hot

As noted above, all is not perfect in Columbia, and Beamer will have to show some positive results if he wants to survive the 2026 campaign, but the return of a healthy LaNorris Sellers and the shakeup of Beamer's staff -- including hiring Kendal Briles as the new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach -- should yield some good things.

Usually, when a head coach makes a major change to his staff, a school will give him at least a full season to see how things play out. Barring a complete collapse by midseason, that's probably going to be the case here.

There's also the question of the buyout, which comes into play anytime you talk about firing a head coach. Currently, South Carolina is on the hook for a sizable amount if they fire Beamer.

Beamer was given a new deal in 2025, putting him under contract through 2030 at over $8 million annually. If the school opts to fire Beamer during the 2026 season, they'd have to pay him $27,903,958, which ranks as the No. 10 most expensive buyout in the SEC.

That number would drop slightly if he's fired after the season, but looking at a bill of over $20 million might give the school and its boosters a moment of pause before they decide to move on.

Who will likely be fired before Shane Beamer?

There are a few names who are probably in a lot more trouble than Beamer. Starting with FSU's Norvell. Austin's jab of "already fired" is actually a halfway truth.

Norvell is a lame duck coach this year. The only reason he wasn't fired last season was because of the record number of head coaches who were cut loose in 2025 (15 to be exact), and FSU knew that getting their guy would be next to impossible with so many schools on the hunt.

Wisconsin's Fickell can also start polishing his resume. Fickell hasn't even had the pockets of success Beamer has experienced, going 17-21 overall, 10-17 in conference play, during his time at Wisconsin. Curt Cignetti's success at Indiana will be upping the heat for a number of Big Ten coaches this year, with Fickell at the top of the list.

It's even fair to say that Boston College head coach Bill O'Brien could be in more trouble than Beamer. O'Brien is 9-16 in two seasons, with only two conference wins while playing in the ACC. That's a short-termer's stat line if ever there was one.

So yeah, Beamer needs to show improvement, or he's in danger of potentially being fired. But No. 1 on the hot seat list? Not even close to reality.

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