The 2023-2024 season might prove to be SEC basketball's deepest group ever. In Joe Lunardi's latest full update to his Bracketology (12/26), the league had 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, and that doesn't include Arkansas and Missouri as two teams who were expected play their way into the Tourney.
Outside of LSU. Vanderbilt, and Georgia, the entire Southeastern Conference should view themselves as potential March Madness participants this season.
The SEC slate is daunting, and there likely will be a couple of teams currently in the postseason discussion who won't be by the end of the year because the schedule is so difficult. However, both preseason choices of Arkansas and Missouri have a real shot to play their ways back into things.
The conference should be in line for anywhere from 6 to 10 NCAA Tournament berths when all is said and done, marking one of the best seasons ever in the SEC. The league has put 8 teams in the Big Dance multiple times, but receiving 9 or 10 bids after the 2023-2024 season would be a record.
But the SEC season doesn't conclude for another 2 1/2 months. For now, as out-of-conference play wraps up, let's take a look at the SEC Power Rankings before the league tips off intra-conference play later this week.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores
There's no sugarcoating this one: Vanderbilt is a bad basketball team. Head coach Jerry Stackhouse hasn't had a good start to a season that could be his last in Nashville. The 'Dores are 5-8 and have lost 7 of their last 9 contests. Losses for Vandy include home games to Presbyterian and San Francisco and every game they've played outside of Nashville.
Is there anything worth mentioning about the Vanderbilt season thus far? Sure. Ezra Manjon is still a good player, ranking in the top-10 in the SEC in points per game and assists per game. That's about it.
The Commodores are dead last in the conference in points per game, field goal percentage, assists, and blocks, and they are second-to-last in 3-point percentage. They also do not have a single player in the top-30 in the league in rebounds per game.
Frankly, barring a miracle, Vanderbilt has no chance of postseason play or even a winning record. If the Commodores finish the year with 10 wins, it will be a minor victory for the program. After winning 22 games last season (albeit in 37 tries), Vandy will not reach half of that total in 2023-2024.
A program with higher expectations than many might remember, Vanderbilt made 7 NCAA Tournaments in 11 years not that long ago but has not made it back to the Big Dance since Bryce Drew took a team of Kevin Stallings players in his first year with the program in 2016-2017. Stackhouse will be 0-5 after this season and will have a losing record as the headman in Nashville.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 13 LSU Tigers
The good news for LSU basketball fans is that the Tigers are better in 2023-2024 than they were in 2022-2023. The bad news is that they still don't seem to be very good.
Matt McMahon's team is expected to be near the bottom of the conference at season's end, and the out-of-conference schedule seems to indicate something similar.
LSU is in the bottom-5 of the SEC in points per game, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage, assisted baskets, and rebounds, and the Tigers are the worst team in the conference at committing turnovers.
The bright side for the 8-5 Bayou Bengals is that they have played a pretty tough schedule, and their only bad loss is to Nicholls State. The grayer, less-optimistic way of looking at it, though, is that there hasn't been a single good win on the resume, either. An overtime win over Wake Forest doesn't move the needle much.
Big-time cheater Will Wade got LSU to three NCAA Tournaments using tactics that would be somewhat permissible today, but the Tigers had a losing overall record and last place finish in the SEC in year 1 under his replacement. Can Matt McMahon keep his team above .500 this season? Probably not. But the fact that it is not completely out of the realm of possibility is an improvement in Baton Rouge.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs
Don't look now, but it looks like Georgia is getting better. Year 1 of the Mike White era in Athens saw the 'Dawgs improve drastically over the final year of the disastrous Tom Crean experiment, getting to .500 after setting a new program record for losses (26) the year before. UGA fans are optimistic that they might be a little better this season.
Unfortunately, with the SEC improving as a whole, the Bulldogs' trajectory might see them with a worse record than last year, even though they are getting better.
All three of Georgia's losses have come against Tournament-hopefuls (Oregon, Miami, and Providence), but none of their wins have come over teams ranked in the NET ranking's top-75. Wins over three ACC programs (Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State) look better in theory than they do in actuality as those programs could pull up the rear in their conference this season as the worst teams in the league not named Louisville or Notre Dame.
Georgia ranks in the bottom-3 in the SEC in both field goal percentage and points per game, but they are one of the league's best at getting to the free throw line. Their top-3 scorers are all guards (a plus come SEC play), so if they start knocking down more shots, Georgia could sneak up and surprise some teams after the New Year.
The Tournament isn't happening, and the conference record might not be any better, but the "eye test" says Mike White has things potentially heading in the right way moving forward.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 11 Missouri Tigers
The Dennis Gates hire in Columbia, Missouri last offseason paid immediate dividends for a proud Mizzou program. The Tigers won 25 games in his first season in CoMo and played their way to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. It was their first trip to the second round since doing so five times in a row under Frank Haith.
However, things aren't going quite as smoothly in year 2.
The Tigers have played an absolutely brutal out-of-conference schedule that has included three Power-6 road games (including one in Lawrence, Kansas to take on the Jayhawks) and a neutral site contest against 11th-ranked Illinois. If they end up on the bubble this season, their pre-conference schedule likely will push them into the Dance.
But because of their 8-5 start to the year, they have a lot of ground to make up in the win column. Mizzou likely will need to win 10 games in the SEC and win a game or two in the SEC Tournament to have a real chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament again.
Most notably Kobe Brown, Missouri lost some important pieces off of last year's team, but the perimeter group of Nick Honor, Sean East, and Noah Carter are all having nice years to keep postseason hopes alive in CoMo.
Certainly a candidate to rise up these rankings as the year progresses, Missouri will need to inflate their league-worst rebounding numbers if they are to improve enough to make any postseason noise.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
A similar story to the Missouri Tigers, Eric Musselman's Arkansas Razorbacks are a better team than their ranking but are this low due to a difficult out-of-conference schedule. The Hogs have four losses to four good teams (two really good teams), but they also beat Duke.
Led by four transfers Tramon Mark (Houston), Khalif Battle (Temple), El Ellis (Louisville), and Trevon Brazile (Missouri), Arkansas' roster is one of the best in the SEC.
However, the third-worst turnover total in the conference, second-worst steal total, and worst steal/turnover rate are holding them back despite having one of the most efficient scoring offenses in the league.
If Ellis and do-it-all guard Davonte Davis were shooting more efficiently, they'd likely have the best shooting percentages in the SEC.
At 9-4, Arkansas has to have a big season during SEC play to have a realistic chance of reaching a 4th-straight Sweet Sixteen. Other than getting Kentucky twice and Alabama on the road, the Razorbacks have as light of an SEC slate as they could hope for as they shoot to do just that.
An 8-10 conference record like last year won't cut it, but if Musselman's group can recreate a win total more similar to Arkansas' back-to-back 13-win SEC campaigns in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, they will have done enough to get back into the good graces of the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 9 Florida Gators
The 10-3 Florida Gators have been a strange team so far in the 2023-2024 season. Despite being the third-best scoring team in the SEC and the league's most prolific rebounding squad, Florida has lost three times, including once to a not-so-great Wake Forest team in a game in which they were outscored (duh) and outrebounded.
Still, Florida has some impressive wins over Michigan and Pittsburgh. Their SEC schedule is difficult as they play both Kentucky and Alabama twice and have road contests against home-heavy teams like Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Ole Miss.
Todd Golden has hit the transfer portal hard, and Iona transfer Walter Clayton, Jr., former Seton Hall Pirate Tyrese Samuel, and UC-Riverside defection Zyon Pullin have rewarded him by all being in the top-20 in the conference in scoring. Samuel, freshman Alex Condon, and Marshall transfer Micah Handlogten are one of the best-rebounding frontcourts in the league, and Condon is already one of the best paint defenders in the country.
The overall team defense, especially on the perimeter, has been a major issue for Florida. The Gators are giving up the third-worst scoring numbers and third-worst 3-point shooting numbers in the SEC. They are among the league leaders in steals but are in the bottom half in turnovers forced, meaning they gamble a lot in passing lanes.
Along with a league-worst free throw efficiency, the other issue for UF is turnovers. They are one of just three SEC teams that have a negative turnover margin, and three Gators average at least two per game (Clayton, Jr. gives the ball away three times a night).
Florida's fate is murky, but Gator fans hope they can go dancing again after two seasons watching from home in March.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks
What is there to say about the Gamecocks? At 12-1, South Carolina basketball has already surpassed their win total from last season as Lamont Paris is starting five transfer portal players (four who came to the program this offseason).
The Gamecocks play good team defense and shoot the 3-ball well. That combination has helped them to impressive wins away from home against Virginia Tech and Grand Canyon. However, they struggle to score when their perimeter shots aren't falling as only guard Meechie Johnson and forward BJ Mack have scored at least ten points from non-outside shots in a single game.
The Gamecocks have played well, but in order to continue having success as SEC play begins, their true bigs must play more (and better). Though BJ Mack is the heaviest player on the roster, he is not a viable post defender in most matchups. The four players who can guard down low (Stephen Clark, Josh Gray, Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk, and Collin Murray-Boyles) combine to play less than 50 minutes of the 200 minutes (5 players x 40 minutes) each game.
Point guard Ta'Lon Cooper is near the top of the conference leaderboards is assists and assist-turnover ratio, and he is one of three high-volume Gamecocks (along with Meechie Johnson and Myles Stute) to shoot over 35% from deep this season.
USC has not made the NCAA Tournament since the Final Four run after the 2016-2017 season, but they have put themselves in the conversation this season.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
The deep SEC shows just how deep it is when looking at the top half. Texas A&M is a top-20 team in the NET rankings, and Buzz Williams’ team plays a really good, old-school style.
The Aggies play strong defense, they dominate the offensive glass (they are the best offensive rebounding team in the country), and they don’t turn the ball over (second-lowest turnover total in the SEC).
Where A&M struggles is scoring, especially from outside. Only the miserable Vanderbilt Commodores shoot a worse percentage from the field than the Aggies, and no team in the league shoots worse from the perimeter.
Wade Taylor IV is among the highest-usage players in the conference, and forward Henry Coleman III is an All-SEC candidate down low. If they continue playing well, the Aggies probably will, as well.
Texas A&M has four losses, but all four were to good teams (two of them were to elite teams Florida Atlantic and Houston). They also beat Penn State, Iowa State, Ohio State, and SMU all away from College Station.
Back-to-back seasons with 27 and 25 wins the past two years, respectively, will be hard to live up to this year, but with the Aggies' strength of schedule, they won't have to win an obscene amount of games to make the NCAA Tournament.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Nate Oats’ Alabama Crimson Tide team still does what Nate Oats’ teams do: they get to the free throw line, and they chuck up threes. So far, that strategy has yielded positive results (third-best 3-point percentage, most 3-point makes, most free throw makes, and best free throw percentage), but the ‘Tide has still lost five times.
All five of Alabama’s losses have come to top-28 NET teams (Ohio State, Clemson, Creighton, Arizona, and Purdue), but they have scored 98 or more points in 5 of their 8 wins and won 7 of those 8 by more than 20 points.
That offense is spearheaded by Mark Sears who leads the conference in scoring (on elite efficiency) and dishes out almost 4 assists per contest, as well.
The defense in Tuscaloosa hasn’t been great. ‘Bama is last in the SEC in scoring defense, second-to-last in field goal percentage allowed, and last in free throws allowed.
Alabama's record needs some work to enter into Tournament "lock" status, but the Crimson Tide is good enough that no one should worry about that too much. If the defense can improve a bit, a 4th-straight March Madness inclusion will happen, though, another 16-2 season (2020-2021 and 2022-2023) feels extremely unlikely.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs
A discussion about Mississippi State has to begin with the fact that they have been missing their best player all year. Forward Tolu Smith has not played, but the preseason All-American pick is expected to return early in the SEC slate.
Even without Smith, the Bulldogs have shot out to an 11-2 record with their only two losses coming in back-to-back games at Georgia Tech and against Southern.
In Smith’s absence, Chris Jans’ team has put three forwards in the SEC’s top-12 in rebounding as Jimmy Bell, Jr., Cam Matthews, and DJ Jeffries have stepped up in the absence of their captain. Those efforts have helped MSU push to the third spot in the team rebounding rankings in the conference.
The Bulldogs are middle-of-the-pack in team scoring, but they get at least 5 points per game from 9 different contributors and 7 points per game from 6 players.
While not elite at anything, Mississippi State has not displayed much weakness in the 2023-2024 season, and when Tolu Smith returns, their biggest problem might be figuring out how to play so many good forwards adequate minutes.
If the Bulldogs can play .500 ball or better in SEC play, the NCAA Tournament will be within reach.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels
Ranking Ole Miss 4th was difficult.
On one hand, the Rebels are the only undefeated team left in the SEC. At 13-0, Chris Beard’s team seems to be one of the most improved in the conference. On the other hand, they almost lost to bad squads like Detroit Mercy (yes, that’s a real team) and Temple. A blowout over a mediocre NC State team and a close win over Memphis are the only good wins on the schedule so far.
But being undefeated has to count for something, though, it certainly won’t last for much longer as the SEC schedule is grueling.
The Rebs are not a good rebounding team (13th in the SEC), but other than that, they have not shown many substantial weaknesses.
Beard’s team relies heavily on their three primary guards as Matthew Murrell, Allen Flanigan, and Jaylen Murray score about 49 of their team’s 76 points per game. Jamarion Sharpe holds down the defense as his 3 blocks per game are on pace to lead the conference.
Thanks to the weak strength of schedule they’ve played so far, in order to make their first NCAA Tournament since Kermit Davis took a team of Andy Kennedy’s players to the Big Dance, Ole Miss will need to get to at least 9 or 10 wins in SEC play.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is really good. Ranked 7th in the NET rankings for a reason, the 9-3 Vols (they still have one more out-of-conference game on January 2nd against Norfolk State) dropped three games in a row right around Thanksgiving, but those losses came to teams ranked inside the top-25 in the NET, and all three of the defeats came away from Knoxville and were by 9 points or fewer.
Rick Barnes’ team, as it always does, plays good defense. The Vols are in the top-3 in the Southeastern Conference in scoring defense, field goal percentage allowed, and 3-point percentage allowed. Jonas Aidoo is still a really good post defender, and he is doing it more often after the departure of Olivier Nkamhoua in the transfer portal.
They also play smart on offense, led by veterans Zakai Zeigler, Santiago Vescovi, Josiah Jordan-James, and Dalton Knecht. JJJ, in particular, has developed into one of the best two-way players in the league, shooting over 40% from outside and being one of the best defensive wings in the SEC.
Tennessee's SEC schedule is more difficult than most, but there is no reason to suspect that they are not ready for another double-digit SEC win total. If they do it again, the Volunteers will have won 10 games or more in SEC play for the fourth-straight year and the sixth year out of the last seven.
The Vols have made the last 5 NCAA Tournaments, and that number will grow to 6 this season.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 2 Auburn Tigers
Auburn had not been to an NCAA Tournament (or even spent one single week ranked) since the 2002-2003 season, but now, the Tigers have made four of the past five NCAA Tournaments.
Pearl’s team is always good on offense, and this season, they rank in the top-5 in the SEC in scoring, field goal percentage, assists, turnovers, assist-to-turnover ratio, offensive rebounding, and free throw percentage.
What might separate this year’s Auburn team from some of the past is the fact that they play pretty good defense. Ranking near the top of the league in rebounding and blocked shots, Auburn also ranks second in the SEC in 3-point percentage allowed and fourth in the conference in field goal defense.
While Pearl’s team is led by All-SEC candidate Johni Broome, the Tigers have most of their production split up across their roster. 7 different players score at least 7.5 points per game, and 10 contributors play at least 16 minutes per game, while none play over 23.
To open the season, War Eagle lost a neutral site game against ranked Baylor and later dropped a true road game in Boone, North Carolina against Appalachian State, but their 10-2 record (with one more out-of-conference game coming against Penn on January 2nd) also includes nice wins over St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, and Southern Cal.
Auburn might be good enough to earn a top-3 (top-12 overall) seed when March rolls around.
SEC Basketball Power Rankings:
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats
To paraphrase a (potentially) fake quote from Mark Twain: “Rumors of Kentucky’s demise were greatly exaggerated.” After the ‘Cats lost to Kansas and then dropped a game to UNC-Wilmington, hot takes flew about John Calipari and his team.
Since then, Kentucky has looked like Kentucky once again, and college basketball fans have been reminded that the Wildcats are still elite.
On the season, UK ranks first or second in the SEC in points per game, field goal percentage, 3-pointers made, 3-point percentage, assists, turnovers, assist-to-turnover ratio, steals, and fouls.
The offense has been really good as veteran transfers Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell are flanked by freshmen Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and DJ Wagner. All five of those players score over 11 points per game and are All-SEC candidates.
Kentucky has not advanced past the NCAA Tournament’s second round since 2018-2019, but this year’s team seems poised to change that. The perfect combination of veteran leadership and young talent, Coach Cal has a really good team that should make the Big Blue Nation proud.