2024 Post-Week 4 12-team College Football Playoff prediction and seeding

Each week of the college football season, the list of contenders for the College Football Playoff field grows a little bit smaller.

This weekend, Group of 5 contender Memphis was knocked off by Navy (likely ending their Playoff chances),

For the first time, the 2024 college football season will see 12 teams make the College Football Playoff instead of the 4-team invitation that fans have seen in the last decade.

The new 12-team format will require the four conference champions ranked the highest to be the CFP's top-4 seeds (getting a 1st-round bye), a 5th conference champion to make the field (seeded wherever), and a Group of 5 representative to be included (likely the very same 5th conference champion). The rest of the College Football Playoff field will be comprised of at-large invitees.

Here is the updated College Football Playoff prediction from Garnet and Cocky, Week 4 edition:

Teams Falling Out of Rankings: Kansas State Wildcats (Previously 8th), Memphis Tigers (Previously 12th)
Teams New to Rankings: Iowa State Cyclones (Previously Unranked all season), Liberty Flames (Previously Unranked for one week)
Biggest Movers in Rankings: Tennessee Volunteers (from 9th to 6th), Iowa State Cyclones (from Unranked to 10th), Liberty Flames (from Unranked to 12th)

This week's version of the College Football Playoff prediction comes with some movement from last week's projection.

The SEC remains a gauntlet, but with the way the schedules line up, the league getting three bids seems like a guarantee, four seems realistic, and five is not outside the realm of possibility.

Kansas State's big loss to BYU removes them from the current Playoff projection, but if the Wildcats can win out (including a matchup with currently-ranked Iowa State), they will be right back in the 12-team field. Memphis' loss to Navy likely ends the Tigers' hopes of making the CFP, and Buffalo halted NIU's attempt at an unlikely run to an undefeated record.

Penn State (BIG Ten), Illinois (BIG Ten), Clemson (ACC), Kansas State (Big 12), Oklahoma State (Big 12), and Missouri (SEC) are all still lurking just on the outside from the power conferences, and Group of 5 teams like James Madison or Navy and would leap over Liberty if they can stay undefeated (and Boise State likely gets in if they all lose a game).

Every week is big in college football from here on out, and the potential 12-team field for the College Football Playoff likely will change each weekend.