Is this the year South Carolina silences the overrated narrative or fuels it even more?

Preseason College Football Rankings: More Art Than Science

College football rankings are not an exact science. What is considered a strong win can be highly subjective, varying from one voter or fan to the next. A prime example is the preseason AP Top 25 released this week, where Texas debuted as No. 1 and Penn State at No. 2. The Longhorns edged out the Nittany Lions by just a few votes, marking one of the closest margins between the two top teams in a preseason poll. Texas received a total of 25 first-place votes to Penn State's 23, essentially a dead heat that boils down to individual style preference among voters. This illustrates how preseason rankings are often more art than science, setting the stage for debates among analysts and fans about which teams are overrated and underrated before a single snap is even played.

When all the dust settles on a season, we often find that many teams fail to live up to their preseason hype. In fact, it's not uncommon for teams that are ranked high in the preseason tend to finish far lower, or even fall out of the rankings completely, by January. With that in mind, let's examine where the South Carolina Gamecocks fit into this situation.

South Carolina Football's Overrated Seasons

Analysts have crunched the numbers on the preseason versus the final AP poll rankings since 2014, and the votes are telling. On Tuesday, On3's Brett McMurphy posted a graphic of the Top 25 Most Overrated Teams since 2014 from AP voters. South Carolina was ranked at No. 22. Several observers have indeed called the Gamecocks "overrated" in certain years of during the playoff era, but South Carolina fans would argue that the story isn't exactly that cut and dry. In fact, looking ahead to the 2025 season, many believe the preseason buzz around the Gamecocks this year might actually be justified, or even that the team is underrated.

Several factors can obviously lead to a team being labeled overrated, and South Carolina's rollercoaster performance over the past decade provides a few case studies.

• 2014 Season: The Gamecocks began the 2014 season with high expectations coming off three straight 11-win seasons under head coach Steve Spurrier. Voters ranked South Carolina at No. 9 in the AP preseason poll, and even mentioned the Gamecocks as a contender for the SEC title. However, those hopes were swiftly dashed, starting with a blowout opener at home to No. 21 Texas A&M. That defeat snapped South Carolina's 19-game home winning streak and exposed major defensive vulnerabilities. Not only did it set the tone for the rest of the season, but the Gamecocks never recovered to meet the preseason expectations. South Carolina finished a sloppy season with a 7-6 record, finishing unranked. It proved the 2014 team was overrated.

• 2023 Season: Fast forward nearly a decade, the 2023 season was a bit different but ultimately led to a similar let down. South Carolina entered the 2023 season with a surge of optimism following a great finish to the 2022 campaign. In the final two games of the season, the Gamecocks pulled off consecutive upsets of top-10 teams, No. 5 Tennessee 63-28, followed by beating in-state rival and No. 8 ranked Clemson 31-30. Many analysts thought that momentum would carry into the 2023 season, and while the Gamecocks were not ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, but they were a popular "dark horse" pick to make noise in the SEC East. Unfortunately, the season fell flat. The Gamecocks were plagued with injuries, the O-line also gave up 41 sacks, causing South Carolina to finish dead last in the SEC in rushing offense. Consistency in the trenches was nonexistent, and team ended up finishing 5-7, missing a bowl. In sum, what was supposed to be a breakthrough year for South Carolina turned into a setback, leading some to retroactively agree with an "overrated" label for the 2023 season.

The 2025 South Carolina Gamecocks: Overrated or Underrated?

Now, looking at the upcoming 2025 season, the opinions seem to be split on whether South Carolina deserves the preseason hype. The AP preseason poll that just dropped has the Gamecocks at No. 13. Is that fair, or is it a surprisingly high ranking?

The Skeptics

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy was one of the skeptics, questioning the lofty placement for the Gamecocks, stating, "Thirteen to me for South Carolina is really high, and I think that that team, there’s too many question marks right now on defense to feel great about them going into the season.” McElroy's concern is centered around the defensive side of the ball: "Yes, Dylan Stewart is still there, the great All-American defensive end. He will take over games. There’s no doubt about that. But the other pieces that were lost along the defensive line, how are they going to adequately replace those guys?" In his opinion, that uncertainty is enough to keep the Gamecocks out of the Top 25 altogether. And given a schedule that includes several tough matchups against tough SEC opponents, the worry is that South Carolina might not live up to a top ranking, thus setting them up to be "overrated" yet again.

The Believers

On the other hand, some analyst see real reason for the optimism in Columbia, suggesting that the Gamecocks may justify, or even exceed, their preseason ranking. Josh Pate of the Josh Pate's College Football Show is one such believer. Pate has been high on South Carolina's potential, largely because of two superstar talents on the roster: sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers and sophomore edge rusher Dylan Stewart. In Pate's assessment, South Carolina "could have the best offensive player in the SEC AND the best defensive player in the SEC" on the team. Those players have already been making headlines, with Sellers as a preseason All-American dual-threat QB with a breakout late season last year, and then Dylan Stewart, the pass-rushing phenom who was a freshman All-SEC honoree and is already earning preseason All-America nods. If both young stars can take the next step, the Gamecocks have the talent to compete with anyone.

Beyond individual talent, both views acknowledge that South Carolina has a brutal schedule for the 2025 season, but the structure of that schedule could make or break the entire season. The Gamecocks open with a neutral site game against Viginia Tech before facing some very winnable games. If South Carolina can start the season 5-0, the confidence will be boosted and a ranked Gamecock squad could gain momentum.

According to Pate's projection model, South Carolina can go 10-2 with a good showing, but as he put it, he “tried to push for 11-1.” However, with the difficult schedule South Carolina faces, 5-7 is in play in a worst-case scenario for the Gamecocks. The team’s most-likely regular-season finish? 8-4. But if the Gamecocks can hit 9-3 or better, they would decisively silence any "overrated" talk and possibly be in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot.

Final Take: Can South Carolina Break the Overrated Label?

So, is South Carolina overrated? The answer depends on whom you ask, but it encapsulates the larger point about preseason polls in general. The Gamecocks have earned the overrated label in previous seasons when they failed to meet expectations. But every season is a new story, and this much is certain: the debate about South Carolina placement simply reinforces how preseason rankings are a matter of opinion, not prophecy. And until kickoff, "overrated" is just a word. Over the past decade, the preseason polls often misjudge teams, sometimes drastically. But also an "overrated" team one year can turn around and defy expectations. The only true rankings that matter are the final ones, and getting to that point is a long and unpredictable journey.

Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks have the chance to either validate the hype of provide fresh ammunition to the doubters. And that uncertainty is part of what makes college football so endlessly fascinating.