How does ESPN’s FPI predict South Carolina Football’s season will end?

South Carolina football fans are all well aware of their favorite team’s need to win out to reach traditional bowl eligibility. Currently wallowing in a 2-6 reality, the Gamecocks play a good Jacksonville State Gamecock squad, the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Kentucky Wildcats, and the rival Clemson Tigers down the stretch.

All four November contests will be at home at Williams-Brice Stadium, and there is a real path to 4-0 for Shane Beamer and his South Carolina football team.

However, it won’t be easy to win four in a row, and most predictions that are floating out there have the Gamecocks falling short of that goal. ESPN, the self-proclaimed “worldwide leader” in sports, is one such predictor who does not have enough belief in USC to predict a 6-6 regular season record.

According to ESPN’s FPI matchup prediction model, South Carolina, instead, should finish the year at 5-7.

FPI gives Carolina an 80% chance to knock off Jacksonville State in the first-ever college football game between two Gamecock teams this weekend.

The model says that the Gamecocks have an even better chance of beating the Vanderbilt Commodores the next week. FPI gives USC an 84.8% chance to win that contest.

The closest game remaining on the schedule according to the FPI is the annual South Carolina-Kentucky game, one that ESPN believes the Gamecocks have a 55.5% chance to win.

Despite the Palmetto Bowl being in Willy B, ESPN gives South Carolina football just a 33% chance to beat Clemson again in 2023.

Based on principles of mathematics (and not any additional football analysis), that means that ESPN’s FPI is predicting that the Gamecock football team has just a 12.42% chance to win out and reach a 6-6 record.

It is worth noting that ESPN’s FPI is updated each week. A couple more South Carolina football victories over the next two weeks could drastically change the predictions, especially if Kentucky or Clemson struggle.

The Gamecocks have never played against Jacksonville State but have an active 14-game win streak over Vanderbilt and beat both Kentucky and Clemson last season.

The climb toward bowl eligibility begins this Saturday at 12:00 on ESPNU and the ESPN app when South Carolina football and Jacksonville State kick off.