South Carolina Football: The path to bowl eligibility

Getting to a sixth win, for teams that aren’t perennial powerhouses, is a sigh of relief and a promise of one more month of football. Entering week 4 of college football, every team is technically still not eliminated from bowl contention. However, that doesn’t mean every road to bowl eligibility is the same level of rocky. The South Carolina football program isn’t in the most envious of positions, especially taking into account they are the only SEC program under .500.

Whether that’s chalked up to poor performance or having to play two ranked opponents, South Carolina football has to go at least 5-4 in their last 9 games to make a bowl. The good news is that they’ve already played the two most difficult teams on their schedule. The bad news, of course, is that they’re still 1-2 despite holding a lead in all three games they’ve played.

While it’s still very likely that the Gamecocks make a bowl, it’s helpful to map out the process in which they achieve that distinction by looking at the remaining games on the schedule.

In order, the remaining games on Carolina’s schedule are Mississippi State at home, Tennessee on the road, Florida at home, Missouri on the road, Texas A&M on the road, and Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Clemson all at home to round out the season. Sure, it’s easy to pick out 5 wins out of that group. It’s also easy to pick out 5 losses, though, if you squint hard enough.

There aren’t any “guaranteed” losses on the schedule anymore after the Georgia game, (which wasn’t quite as bad as some had presumed it would be) but there are two games in which the South Carolina football team will be heavily favored.

Those two contests are back-to-back, the home contests against C-USA opponent Jacksonville State and SEC doormat (sorry Vandy fans) Vanderbilt. It’s relatively safe to go ahead and mark those two as wins for the Gamecocks, especially with them being at Williams-Brice and Vanderbilt’s recent loss to UNLV.

South Carolina is pretty much a safe bet to collect 3 wins this year, which doesn’t exactly inspire much hope when read aloud but it’s the truth. Expected wins over those two aforementioned programs would mean the Gamecocks need to beat 3 of the following 7 opponents: Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Clemson.

That makes this weekend’s SEC home opener with Mississippi State all the more important. Lose, and Shane Beamer’s South Carolina football squad will need to beat 4 SEC opponents in 6 games. Win, and all that is needed is 2 wins in those 6 games, given that South Carolina beats Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt.

For this exercise in determining path towards bowl eligibility, 3 categories will be used to sort the remaining SEC contests: Likely Gamecock wins, 50/50s, and likely Gamecock defeats. Unfortunately, there is only one game that can be circled as a likely win, that being this weekend against Mississippi State at home. Mississippi State is still adapting to a new offense after the tragic death of beloved Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have endured quite a few growing pains.

There are quite a few 50/50s remaining, including Tennessee on the road, Florida at home, Texas A&M on the road, and the Kentucky and Clemson home matchups.

Tennessee has not looked nearly as good this season, continuing to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and feeling the loss of Hendon Hooker especially hard. Having the Vols early in the season might be good for the Gamecocks as Tennessee is still adjusting to new offensive personnel, and the Vols just lost to Florida in the Swamp in what might have been their worst showing in Josh Heupel’s tenure.

A win over the Bulldogs this weekend and Tennessee the next would be sunny for the Gamecocks’ bowl chances, but it’s important to remember the game is being played in Knoxville at night. Regardless of how good Tennessee is, it’s always a tough environment.

Florida at home would’ve been circled as a likely Gamecock win before last week’s win over Tennessee when Trevor Etienne ran wild over the Vols, collecting 173 yards on the ground. Given South Carolina’s run defense struggles, they’ll need to work to stop the Gators’ run attack. Having the game at Williams-Brice is crucial, as shown by last time the Gators made the trip up to Columbia. Spencer Rattler could have a huge day with the Gators’ secondary, however, which could be the difference.

Skipping over the Missouri game for now, the Texas A&M road matchup is another toss-up. Coming into this season, it wouldn’t have been insane to call this game a likely loss, but Texas A&M has looked miserable at times, giving up 48 points to Miami and letting Tyler Van Dyke look like a good quarterback.

Spencer Rattler has a huge chance to have a career game against the Aggies, but it’s important to note that Texas A&M actually has a good offense this year, and quarterback Connor Weigman (who saw action in last year’s game) is much improved compared to last season. He’s in the better half of SEC quarterbacks. It’s also at Kyle Field, where the Gamecocks have never won before.

The last two tossups, Kentucky and Clemson, are the last two games on the schedule for South Carolina. If earlier games don’t go according to plan, the end of the regular season might resemble Shane Beamer’s first year, when South Carolina was 5-5 entering the last two games of the season. That would mean Carolina needs to win at least 1 of these 2 games to clinch bowl eligibility. Becoming bowl-eligible before these two games would be a huge boost to the confidence of this program.

Both of these teams have not performed up to preseason expectations, namely Clemson. Cade Klubnik’s offense hasn’t exactly impressed, and Duke scored 28 on the defense. Kentucky trailed in the second half to Eastern Kentucky and transfer QB Devin Leary has thrown a pick in all three games this season. Having them at home is huge, and South Carolina fans truly could be the determining factor in whether this team makes a bowl game.

The away game against Missouri can be penciled in as a likely loss. It’s just a nightmare matchup on the road against a team that Carolina hasn’t beaten since Michael Scarnecchia won in a monsoon. In fact, South Carolina has now beaten every SEC East opponent and 3 SEC West opponents since they last beat Missouri. Missouri has one of the best secondaries in the conference, maybe the nation, and their defense is just overall a very solid unit.

Offensively, they’re a work in progress, but Luther Burden III will need to be stopped by someone on the Gamecocks, which is a difficult task in itself. It’s in Columbia, Missouri, and the Tigers just beat ranked, reigning Big 12 champs Kansas State at Faurot Field. It’ll be tough to scrape a win across in this game, but if the Gamecocks were to do so, it would shape them up nicely towards a positive finish.

For what it’s worth, the author has the Gamecocks penciled in for a 6-3 finish and a 7-5 overall mark with wins over Mississippi State, Florida, Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Clemson. ESPN’s FPI has South Carolina football favored in 5 of 9 remaining contests, against Mississippi State, Florida, Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky, meaning the metrics favor bowl eligibility for the ‘Cocks as well.

Despite the speculation and prognostications, the best way to achieve bowl eligibility is just taking each week one at a time and not overreacting to each result. It’s certainly an achievable goal, and if the offensive line can hold up throughout the year, South Carolina football fans will be watching their favorite team play football in December.