South Carolina Football: SEC going with 8-game schedule or 9-game? Why it matters for the Gamecocks

The SEC is expanding in 2024 as historic programs Texas and Oklahoma join the league. The best conference in college football will get even better, and the league must adjust its schedule to accommodate 16 teams instead of 14. South Carolina football seems to have a preference as to how this change is handled, and so do other programs across the conference.

The primary options on the table are an 8-game schedule and a 9-game schedule. Each format has pros and cons, and different teams in the SEC have different reasons for supporting or arguing against each schedule type.

An 8-game schedule in a league with 16 teams could be formatted in a number of ways, but a 1+7 schedule seems most likely. In this format, each team would have one “permanent” rival (for South Carolina football, Kentucky seems most likely) and would alternate home and away games with the rest of the conference, playing each team at home and on the road during a 4-year span.

Early speculation was that a 9-game conference schedule (3 “permanent rivals” plus a 6-game rotation of the remaining 12 teams in the conference) for the SEC would be the inevitable end to the discussions as more games typically equate to more revenue. However, upon further review of the SEC’s contract with ESPN (and CBS), that might not be the case.

The good news for 8-game supporters, according to a report from Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger, a 9-game schedule is unlikely…for now. A source within the SEC told Dellenger that the conference is expected to keep an 8-game schedule for 2024 but would “re-evaluate” if more revenue was on the table in the future for a 9-game schedule.

Yes, more money would be made if the league replaced a non-conference matchup with an SEC game, but the money might be just a small (relatively speaking) increase that could have negative financial implications later. ESPN (and parent company Disney) are having a bit of a financial crunch due to the economic slide of the last three years.

The SEC, led by commissioner Greg Sankey, could be looking to secure a larger payday from an eventual 9-game schedule by holding out in the beginning. Allowing a 9-game schedule during a time when the payout would be lower could lessen the value of a future television deal. However, once Disney and ESPN “bounce back,” the media conglomerate might back up the Brinks truck.

With the College Football Playoff expanding next year, as well, the SEC is expected to have more teams vying for real postseason play starting in 2024. Instead of a 4-team playoff, 12 teams will compete for the national title after the regular season ends, and the best conference in college football would benefit from its contenders ending the season with fewer losses.

This past season, the league would have had three participants in a 12-team playoff (Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee), and LSU, South Carolina, and Mississippi State were just outside. In some seasons, seeing four or five SEC programs make the playoff could happen.

For South Carolina football, specifically, the 8-game plan makes much more sense. Obviously, making a schedule even tougher when it is already viewed as the toughest schedule in the nation in 2023 would be problematic.

Unlike some teams in the conference, the Gamecocks play a major out-of-conference rival every season, and that rival (Clemson) is a perennial top-25 team. South Carolina football also often plays a rival school from North Carolina (North Carolina, NC State, ECU, App State, etc.).

Many seasons, that would leave the Gamecocks with just one other out-of-conference matchup if the schedule grew to 9 SEC games. That would leave South Carolina football with a schedule that includes 10 (or 11) big-time games each season, something that is great for ticket sales but not great for wins and losses.

In reality, most programs (Carolina included) would end up dropping more high-profile out-of-conference matchups from their schedules in order to accommodate a 9th game in-conference. The Gamecocks’ future out-of-conference matchups with Virginia Tech and Miami would almost certainly disappear if they had to play an additional team of similar caliber from the SEC.

Some schools (see also: Kentucky) rarely schedule good out-of-conference games and, instead, opt to play three cupcakes to go with their 8-game schedule and one out-of-conference rival (Louisville). The Wildcats would not be willing to give up one of their three (almost) guaranteed wins over a “cupcake” in order to play a tougher SEC team.

Player safety is also a factor as, generally speaking, an SEC contest is more physical and could result in a greater number of injuries than an out-of-conference matchup, especially if it replaces a cupcake on the schedule.

With more expansion rumored for the future, an 8-game schedule or a 9-game schedule might not be the law of the league for long, but for now, the 8-game format seems most likely in the short-term future with the 9-gamer laying in wait for a few big checks to be signed by ESPN.